NATO expert issues drone war warning to UK and Europe as Russia 'drives wedges'

NATO, the US and the West are not prepared for a drone war with Russia, a NATO expert has warned. Russia will continue to probe its enemies, through drone incursions, cyber attacks and other "nefarious" activities with the aim of locating "divisions within the alliance" that they can exploit, Frank Rose, a missile defence specialist, told the Express.

Mr Rose - who served as the principal deputy administrator of the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) under the Biden administration and has helped negotiate many NATO defence contracts - does not believe Russia is looking for a direct military confrontation with the West. "They know that in a head-on confrontation with the United States and NATO, they would be at a serious conventional disadvantage," he said. "So, as long as this war continues to move along, I think the Russians will continue to probe - to look for areas of disagreement between the US and Europe. The Russians are really good at wedge driving.

"They really perfected this during the 1970s and 1980s in Europe, especially with the debate over the deployment of the intermediate nuclear forces."

One particular crack Mr Rose believes Russia is hunting down is within the relationship between the US and Europe. Within Europe, Russia may try to exploit differences between Eastern allies in, for example, the Baltics and those in the West, like Spain or France, he believes. He said: "You're going to have differences."

"Now we have Orban in Hungary, who has a very different view of the world than, say, Keir Starmer in London. Same thing with Slovakia. [Russia] will be opportunistic when it sees a potential cleavage. They will do what they can to try to exploit it."

Last month, Russia breached NATO airspace multiple times, with well over a dozen drones penetrating Poland's borders during a seven-hour incursion on September 9. Drones were also sighted in the Baltic states, Romania and Norway. although Russia denies any wrongoing. The Polish incursion triggered a Quick Reaction Alert, with both the Polish Air Force and other NATO militaries scrambling aircraft.

Asked if the West could face more of the drone incursions seen in Poland, Mr Rose replied: "I think it's possible, to be honest with you. There seems to be a pattern, as the Soviets would want you to say: 'This is no accident, comrade'.

"I think it will be part of their steady pressure campaign, testing the Alliance's ability to respond. With the recent incursions in Poland [...] I think the Alliance did a very good job responding."

However, Mr Rose also said that these actions highlighted a very important problem.

"What it also shows me is that NATO, the United States and the West right now are not prepared for a drone war," he said.

"There are all sorts of challenges. First is the cost ratio exchange. The Russians are producing some of these Iranian-designed drones for about $35,000 a drone. A patriot missile can cost in the millions of dollars. So you're in a really bad exchange ratio. Indeed, if you look at the wars in Ukraine and in the Middle East, the United States has been going through its missile defence interceptors very, very robustly. Same thing with the Ukrainians. They're scrounging to get them. So it's a big problem."

Mr Rose said that developing new technologies should be a priority for Europe and the UK, which are "both scalable and affordable," as well as continuing investments in defence.

"It's great that the European countries are stepping up, but if everybody does all of these different, disparate things, it's not going to be effective.

"I think they need to foster a dynamic defence innovation ecosystem. It's not there in Europe right now [...] I think one of the things that Europe has to do is really spark an innovation ecosystem so it can stay ahead of the technological challenges.

"I'd also say preserving NATO political unity and cohesion is key, and modernising the alliance's nuclear deterrent capabilities."